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| A Kilo class Submarine of the Russian Navy. Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. |
Oh, what a difference a year makes. This time last year it was almost inconceivable for the Philippines to consider getting weapons from Russia. And yet look at where we are now, under a new President with a radically new Foreign Policy, the Department of National Defense (DND) recently went out and announced that it was considering getting the Kilo-class Diesel-Electric (DE) Submarines from Russia for the Philippine Navy.1
’Submarines in Asia’Now may be time the right time for us to seriously start thinking about getting Submarines because after Thailand solidified their deal of acquiring Yuan-class Submarines from China,2 the Philippines and Myanmar are about the only major countries left in Asia without Submarine capability. The other Asian countries with no subs are either smaller countries, or countries that are landlocked like Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Papua New Guinea, Timor Leste, etc.
Of course, ‘sanay na tayo diyan’ (we are used to that already), we are used to being left behind. For a long time we were the only major Asian country also without Guided Missile capability for our Navy until Presidents Ninoy Aquino Jr. and Rodrigo Duterte corrected that with their purchase of the Multi-Purpose Attack Craft (MPAC) Mk 33 and the new Frigates,4 respectively. And now that we have Guided Missile boats and ships, it seems everyone is moving on to Submarines.
’The Kilo class’
The Kilo class Submarine is designed and built by the Russian companies “Rubin” and “Admiralty Shipyard’, respectively, and first entered service with the Soviet Union in 1980. Since then it and its variants has been one of the most commercially successful contemporary DE Submarine designs with over 60 built and entered service with at least eight navies around the world.
The Soviet and Russian designation system can be quite confusing at times as they don’t seem to necessarily follow a linear system, but what we do know is that the original Kilo class Subs are known as the Project 877 Paltus in Russia and its export versions are known as the Project 877E and Project 877EKM.5
In 1997, an improved version of the Kilo class was introduced as the Project 636 Varshavyanka in Russia or the Improved Kilo-class Submarine in the West. Externally the only difference of the I-Kilo from the Kilo is that it is longer by around 1.2 m in length.
Internally and in terms of performance, the I-Kilo has a more powerful Diesel Generator, longer Snorkeling Range and better Acoustic Stealth capability. The latest version of the I-Kilo is the Project 636.3 which is the same one sold to Vietnam in 2009 with even better stealth capability.6
The main, common features among the Kilo class versions are the following:
- Their engines are “Raft-Mounted”, or mounted on small platforms designed to isolate the engine’s vibration and noise;
- They have Anechoic (i.e., non-reflective, non-echoing or echo-free) Rubber Coating on the outside of the hull designed to reduce the noise coming from inside the sub;
- Six Torpedo Tubes at the bow with a combination of eighteen Heavy Weight Torpedoes (HWT) and/or Missiles as ammunition.
The Kilo is considered to be one of the quietest Submarines in the world, and the biggest endorsement of its capabilities comes from no less than the Western Navies it went up against when they gave it the nickname “The Black Hole” for its ability to evade tracking during the Cold War.
’Kilo Characteristics and Performance’
I am enumerating below the Physical Characteristics and Performance of the Kilos, and I thought it would be better to compare it with the other commercially successful DE Sub in recent times, the Type 209 Submarine, specifically its Type 209/1200 or Chang Bogo class variant:7 8 9 10 11
From the data, we can see that the Chang Bogo completely outclasses the Kilo despite it being a smaller sub, at least on paper as it has better performance and sensors. The Chang Bogo is faster, has a longer range, can dive deeper and its sensors has better range.
Plus it has flank sonar arrays which allows it to detect ships and other submarines more effectively from its sides. The only main advantage of the Kilos is that it has more weapons options and its Anti-Ship Missiles (AShM) have longer ranges than that of the Chang Bogo.
The Kilo can also carry short-range Surface to Air Missiles (SAM) while none seems to be available for the Type 209. Also note that the UGM-84 Harpoon Missile integration on the Type 209 is often cited as an option, but on the I-Kilo the AShMs are a standard feature.
Cost when Indonesia bought their Improved Chang Bogo class Submarines (a variant of the Type 209) was USD 373 million12 which I feel would be about the same as the Kilos if the need to spend for Submarine Infrastructure is factored in.
Despite it being a less efficient design than the Type 209, I think the Kilo is still competitive enough for our purposes, and the determining factor there could be which country will be willing to provide “Soft Loans” (i.e., loans with below-market Interest Rates and long Repayment Periods) to us for weapons, and so far only Russia (and China) has expressed that publicly.
’Submarine Infrastructure’
In terms of cost, another thing for us to consider is the need to build Coastal Infrastructures for our Submarines since we have none at the moment. Thailand already has such infrastructure since they did operate subs in the 1950s, hence they may only need to update or refurbish it for their latest Submarine buy.
When Vietnam bought their Kilos, the price of each sub was at USD 350 million each. However, the addition of weapons and the need to establish a bigger Submarine Infrastructure increased the price of each sub by USD 183 million to USD 533 million.13 Since we are starting from scratch, we will also need to make similar investments, hence we can expect the price of these Kilos to be about the same, if not more if we are to buy less number of boats than Vietnam did.
That amounts to more than USD 1 billion for two subs, probably even more. Of course the Submarine infrastructure is a Fixed Cost, meaning once established we won’t necessarily have to pay the same amount again if we do buy more subs later. But some could argue that such a large amount of money will be better spent for Surface Ships instead.
’Submarine ASuW Effectiveness’
However, over the last few decades, Submarines have proven time and again their effectiveness against Surface vessels, like as I had blogged before14 when an Argentinian Type 209 Submarine, the ARA San Luis managed to evade the Royal Navy (RN) during the Falklands War while managing to mount attacks of its own on at least two occasions. The attacks though were unsuccessful due to technical issues with its Torpedoes.
Another Type 209 sub, the SAS Manthathisi of the South African Navy was able to “sink” an entire multi-national fleet during a Naval Exercise in 2007. Other accounts of how subs were able to best Surface Ships in recent times include like when a Song class Attack Submarine of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) surfaced near the supposedly well-guarded USS Kitty Hawk Aircraft Carrier of the United States Navy (USN) in 2007.15
Or how a French Attack Submarine “sank” yet another aircraft carrier of the USN, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, during a Naval Exercise in 2015.16
’Operation, Maintenance and Training Problems’
The United States Naval War College (USNWC) though has issued a warning about DE Submarine ownership, painting a somewhat grim picture of it thru an article published in 2015. They cited problems in terms of Maintenance and Training which resulted in low availability and some accidents when in service with some navies.17
Argentina’s submarines, for example, reportedly only spent a total of 19 hours submerged for the entire year of 2011, while it took South Africa five years to put back one of its submarines into service. The same South African Navy also had problems finding enough qualified sailors to man all of their submarines, and inadequate training led to an accident when one of their subs collided with the ocean floor.
As for the reasons why these happened, one issue is costs, it takes a good deal of money to maintain a submarine. The Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) spent over USD 80 million to maintain each of its Scorpene Submarines in 2011 while the Canadian government needed to spend around USD 25 million a year for each of its Upholder class Submarines.
Another issue is Training and shortage of Qualified Personnel. Naturally the less time on Patrol a Submarine has, the less time for its crew to gain experience in running it. And since a high Technical Educational background is needed for Submariners, then this naturally narrows down the pool of qualified candidates.
Turnover among the crew also seems to be high because once they get experience, together with their high educational background they could eventually leave the service for better opportunities and thus the Training cycle needs to start all over again.
’Reflections’
IMHO, I think that since we will never be able to match up in terms of number of ships with any of our more powerful neighbors, then we really should make all of our major combatants count as much as possible, and the best way to do that is not with Surface Ships, but with Submarines.
Ideally I think all of our vessels assigned to the Offshore Combat Force (OCF), the one likely to be dealing with external threats, should be composed either mostly or if not all DE and/or DE-AIP subs. Surface Ships could then be assigned for Amphibious Operations (meaning Troop and Equipment carrying ships and their Escorts) and for Internal Security Operations (ISO), meaning smaller but faster boats with Light Helicopters and/or Rigid Hull Inflatable Boat (RHIB) as Interceptors against Insurgents, Bandits, etc.
Despite the USNWC's "Doom and Gloom" article, Asian countries have been moving forward with their Submarine acquisitions, I think mainly because they see its strategic value outweighing its issues. But we do need to take a careful note of the USNWC's warnings in order for us to avoid the mistakes the other countries have made.
It will be useless for us to have equipment that are effective but aren’t available most of the time due to maintenance or other issues. If we are to buy subs, we will need to fully commit to it in terms of costs, and this means also buying a good maintenance package and maybe establishing an Submarine School with a Submarine Simulator to crew our ships.
’Submarine Build Up’
There are basically two ways that navies have used in terms of building up their submarine capability, and that is thru a “Slow Buildup” and a “Fast Buildup”. A slow buildup means acquiring simpler subs at first and then slowly working up to more advanced and sophisticated subs.
One example of this is Vietnam, who first bought refurbished, secondhand Yugo-class Midget Submarines (i.e., Submarines with less than 150 tons displacement) from North Korea in 1997. By 2009, they felt they were ready for more advanced subs hence they went on and bought their Kilo class subs from Russia.
Another example is Singapore who slowly built up their Submarine capability by buying used DE subs first in 1995, then moved on to more advanced, used DE subs with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) in 2005 before finally buying brand new DE-AIP subs in 2013.18
The alternative way is to do a fast buildup like what Thailand is doing. Instead of getting smaller, less capable used boats and slowly building it up from there, they opted to buy brand new of the most advanced DE-AIP subs in the world right now in the Yuan-class.
They did operate subs before, but that was over fifty years ago, so they will also basically be starting from scratch. But Thailand does have a more advanced Navy than ours, so it could be argued that they are in a better position than we are when using this "faster way".
But the problem with the slow buildup is that it takes time, in the case of Vietnam more than a decade and in the case of Singapore almost two decades, and that is time we may not have with the continuing tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
If we go thru this, then we will have a safer buildup, but might end up with less capable subs to fight with when war does break out. A fast buildup will allow us to have very capable vessels to use in case of war, but at the risk of having a lot of problems like availability and even accidents.
But do take note that despite the problems with their submarines, Argentina and South Africa were still able to perform well in spots when their subs were available for use.
’Parting Shot’
The Kilo class Submarine is one of the best DE Submarines in the world right now, with a very solid record of commercial success and service life in a good number of Navies around the world. If Russia will indeed give us Soft Loans for them, then they will be our best chance of getting Subs.
However, acquisition cost will likely be quite expensive, easily more than a billion dollars for two boats if we factor in the costs of:
- The Submarine themselves;
- Their Weapons
- Infrastructure for them
- A good maintenance package to keep them going
- Training facilities
Operating costs is also expected to be quite high, and a lot of careful planning and execution will be needed to run them properly. But even then I do expect it to be still fairly risky if we go and do a fast buildup, I think we will still end up with some mistakes, and hard lessons will still have to be learned.
But that is the nature of the beast, even if we go with a slow buildup, there will just be some other tradeoff that we will need to deal with. In the end, it may all boil down to whatever tradeoff we are willing to compromise with.
If we are buying submarines, not only the Navy but the government in general will need to step up its game if we are to overcome the challenge of funding and operating such vessels.
Let me end this blog with what the Thai Navy Commander Admiral Kraisorn Chansuvanich once told the Press as justification for buying their subs:
“If a war breaks out, nearly all of our surface ships will be wiped out. Submarines are what will survive”.19
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| An Improved Kilo class Submarine of the Algerian Navy. Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. |
SOURCE:
- Philippines evaluates Russian Kilo-class submarines,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20170129102858/http://www.janes.com/article/67273/philippines-evaluates-russian-kilo-class-submarines) - Thailand to buy 3 Chinese subs for $1.3b,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160702153213/http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thailand-to-buy-3-chinese-subs-for-13b) - ADAS 2016: Propmech to deliver first MPAC Mk 3 to the Philippine Navy in mid-2017,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160930213330/http://www.janes.com/article/64196/adas-2016-propmech-to-deliver-first-mpac-mk-3-to-the-philippine-navy-in-mid-2017) - Hyundai wins USD337 million frigate contract from Philippine Navy,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160915025240/http://www.janes.com/article/63401/hyundai-wins-usd337-million-frigate-contract-from-philippine-navy) - Project 877 Paltus / Project 636 Varshavyanka Kilo class Diesel-Electric Torpedo Submarine,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20170124031951/http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/877.htm) - Project 636 Varshavyanka,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160322230302/http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/636.htm) - Project 877 Kilo class / Project 636 Kilo class / Diesel-Electric Torpedo Submarine Technical Data,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20170117224351/http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/877-specs.htm) - Type 209 Technical Specifications - Global Security,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160125043045/http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/type-209-specs.htm) - 291 Orzel [PL-877E Kilo] – 1987 Technical Data
(https://web.archive.org/web/20161210075039/http://cmano-db.com/submarine/327/) - PL-636.3 Kilo [Varshavyanka] – 2014 Technical Data,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20161210100148/http://cmano-db.com/submarine/508/) - 061 Chang Bogo [Type 209-1200] – 2001 Technical Data,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20161210140457/http://cmano-db.com/submarine/224/) - Korea wins $1 bil. Indonesian deal,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20130928012306/http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2011/12/123_101248.html) - Russian Subs in Vietnam,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160910011500/https://news.usni.org/2012/08/20/russian-subs-vietnam) - Submarines for the Philippine Navy Lessons from the ARA San Luis,
(https://rhk111smilitaryandarmspage.wordpress.com/2014/04/12/submarines-for-the-philippine-navy-lessons-from-the-ara-san-luis/) - The Uninvited Guest: Chinese Sub Pops Up in Middle of U.S. Navy Exercise, Leaving Military Chiefs Red-Faced,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20161109221943/http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-492804/The-uninvited-guest-Chinese-sub-pops-middle-U-S-Navy-exercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html) - In 2015, a 30 Year Old French Nuclear Submarine 'Sank' a U.S. Aircraft Carrier,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20170102052442/http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/2015-30-year-old-french-nuclear-submarine-sank-us-aircraft-18912?page=show) - The Race to the Bottom,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20170130143053/https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/9c43a160-2281-4bd9-9ad4-787f4c24fedf/The-Race-to-the-Bottom.aspx) - Singapore Submarine Capabilities,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20160517003411/http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/singapore-submarine-capabilities) - Thailand nears $1 billion submarine deal with China despite exclusive U.S. military training,
(https://web.archive.org/web/20161004021002/http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/7/thailand-nears-1-billion-submarine-deal-with-china/)
Don't we have sub infra in subic leftover from the Americans? How about oyster bay? Is it good for subs? Well if ever we do get one medyo matanda tanda na tayo. But we should start now or else...The next big conflict will be on resources and the ocean is one of its battlegrounds. Duterte has his soft loans now and he better use it because if the next admin is again this hostile to the previous one we may never get a second chance. Case in point.... Majority of the horizon phases of the afp are pretty much up in the air. But again duterte is one short-sighted president. He will put priority to the 6 years he has than the future.
ReplyDeleteThat is a very good question. Subic was able to host American Subs, but we're not sure how much of the Sub infrastructure they left behind. The permanent fixtures they couldn't carry out may still be there, like the Submarine Pens, but not sure about other stuff like Floating Equipment. The Training Facilities will definitely have to ours, and maybe the Submarine dry docking facilities also.
ReplyDeleteBrunei, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste are not landlocked.
ReplyDeleteI know, that is why I used "either-or" in that sentence. "... are either smaller countries, or countries that are landlocked ...".
ReplyDeleteLook at it this way, I think the Philippines getting the Improved KILO class SSK would be a better option but I also think that India should be the one to Train the Philippine Navy on how to operate and train to use the Kilo class SSK. Having SSK submarines would be prefect because they can be used for ASW, ASUW, Mine warfare, Intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance missions, Radio/Electronic intelligence gathering missions, Inserting/extracting special forces and even Land attack Missions. On top of that they are perfect for A2/AD missions in which it would make the Enemy work twice as hard or think twice about coming into an area. I think the Philippines should make a G2G deal with Russia on the Improved Kilo class SSK and the Version that Vietnam got. I know people like European or South Korean SSK subs, but the price tag from Europe and South Korea would put the Philippines out of the Market. It's why Russia is the best option for the Philippines and it would be very easy on the budget.
ReplyDeleteHI RHK, i am curious on your take about the foreign policy of the current administration. Please give us you mind on it. Thanks
ReplyDeleteI actually have a blog in mind about your question, Deewii, and if no other interesting procurement news comes out, I may go and finish it. Now, about Duterte switching over to China and Russia, I think from a PRACTICAL point of view ... He may be right.
ReplyDeleteThe thing to remember here is that whether we side with China or the US, there will always be a downside, so in the end, we look after our own interests, the one where we will benefit the most.
The problem with the US right now is that they are just not as motivated about the WPS like China is. I mean, we sided with them 100% under PNoy, and what have we got to show for it? A bunch of nerfed Frigates? The fact that they haven't committed to defending our interests in the WPS?
The US never fought for us in Panatag Shoal, in the end we have had to ask for China's permission for our fishermen to go there. The last straw was for me when it became apparent that they refused to sell us Sidewinders and Mavericks. Here we are, willing to pay for them and yet they refused because they are so afraid of China.
China just wants the WPS more than the US, to the point that they were willing to grant us USD 25 Billion in Economic aid and loans. The US would never do that, you don't see them us granting any economic aid worth anywhere near that much.
Of course, accepting China's aid would be like selling our claims in the WPS cheaply since the estimated Oil and Gas reserves there is over USD 843 Billion, and the USD 25 Billion that China is loaning to us is only 3% of that.
But realistically, China will never allow us to get all of that resources and money by ourselves, and they have the muscle. The US will also never fight China for us over that amount of money. They are already rich, they don't need it, especially if it will cause many of them to die.
So do we stay with the Americans, and get nothing worthwhile except maybe a sense of Moral Ascendancy and Pride? Some people would be contented just taking verbal and written potshots at China every now and then.
Or do we allow ourselves to be bullied into selling the WPS cheaply? Both are not easy decisions to make.
The ideal outcome for us would be for the US to drive out China and help us exploit the WPS' resources, but that would never happen as that would mean war. Or that China will treat us as equals and help exploit the WPS with at least a 50-50 share of its resources.
But some will never agree to have China get any share of the WPS, and with China having a stronger military and an authoritative regime would never agree to such an equal partnership, they will always insist on having a lion's share of the resources.
It sucks to have a treasure trove of resources nearby and a superpower going after it also like our situation is now. It absolutely sucks big time.
Here's a Video in Russian about the Kilo class SSK (Project 636). You can see how Russia Builds them and why the US calls them the Black Holes of the Submarine world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsQpj6ylMRo
ReplyDeleteIt really sucks. But the thing that I'm most angry about and I'm sure others are too is that the Chinese think that it's right for them to do so as they wish because of the status quo. They present themselves as friends but stab you in the back. That's just it. No amount in aid will ever make us feel secure if China decides to do what it pleases. If the duterte admin continues on this path without safeguards then after the wps what is next for our country to give up? I hope the next admin has the brains to know this is coming eventually. I hope a modest 2% GDP defense spending is a reponse to that....But if not then I guess this admin is the same as the pre-noynoy admin. ..Every centavo spent just to stay in power, quell dissent.
ReplyDeleteLiving beside an authoritarian, repressive superpower who wants to steal our riches, none of our alternatives will be pleasant. That is the curse of our geopolitical location.
ReplyDeleteYeah, how you dissect it is enlightening. I guess we need to be economically progressive and militarily strong to be not bullied around- irregardless of what foreign policy we do have.
ReplyDeleteSomehow, this current administration opened our eyes to some realities that we thought were unimaginable before like letting go of pro-US foreign policy.
On the other hand, the AFP modernization program while not discontinued, i believe there are skips and overhauls being done. Does this make us weaker?
I wouldn't say weaker, in fact our AFP is stronger now compared to the last couple of decades, but any delays in the "Horizons" path that the AFP has laid out means it will take us longer to reach the level of "Credible Deterrence" that they wanted.
ReplyDeleteRealistically though, against a country as rich and powerful as China, I think only the US can stop them. Even Japan, as militarily strong as they are with all their Aegis Destroyers, F-15 Fighter aircraft and Soryu Submarines still need help from the US, so how much more us.
RHK, I wonder why you have to give the responsibility to the US for those islands/islets/shoal or whatever term you have there.
ReplyDeleteFirst, We ourselves did not think about our own defense. Flat out end of story. So why expect someone outside far away from our territory to fight for you if you yourself cannot even ready to fight the Chinese. Philippines can't even scare a Chinese fishing boat away.
Yes, we are with them on Pnoys term 100++%. But so what? If you think of the other way, US supported us 100% but what can we offer to the US? what can our 100% help do for them?
Pinoy: Sige Kano suntukin mo si China, ayan sige sige. Suntok.
Kano: Ikaw Pinoy anung ginagawa mo?
Pinoy: Aba hindi ko naman kayo ka-match. Kayo magsuntukan. Please.
Imagine a scenario if both will end up on a shooting contest.
.
.
.
It will look like the US being a "Paki-alamero" again, Fighting a war that is not for them.
I understand the situation they are having on the middle east besides terrorism, they have economical and political interest that they are or want to secure for their long term goals to maintain the super power that they are. But our situation is just for us, for Philippines sake. Haha funny how that goes.
Second, The Problem is that we only see our side, but what about the US side of things? have you thought about that? For sure they will have the worst of the worst if all hell break loose. 100++% Guarantee.
Always put yourself on the shoes of others. Think of what they will go through as well. For sure you will be enlightened. That is what I learned from my Ermitanyo Friend.
Well as I wrote, Mamongrogi, even countries as strong as Japan and Vietnam still need the US' help in stopping a country as strong as China. Do you think Japan and Vietnam can stop China on their own? Those countries doesn't think so, that is why they still ended up going and asking for the US' help.
ReplyDeleteI am just stating things as they are. It is not a nice or ideal situation, but that is what it is. China is strong, only the US can stop them. If the US will not stop them, then we will all be in China's mercy whether we like it or not.
For me, that is the truth. Now I am not forcing the US to come to our aid, they don't have to if they don't want to. But in that case, then we will have to realistically think of how we will deal with China if that happens.
But that is not the Point that I am making.
ReplyDeleteI did not say China is not a super power nor I did not argue that Japan or Vietnam can handle itself against China.
Simply, putting US on the spot for the Philippines own interest against China is an asinine statement. Again, Put yourself on the Shoes of the American Side of things, It will end up badly for the US than the Philippines. Who's Economy is going to suffer, Who's more on the front line, Who's more likely to lose more troops and Equipment/Assets.
Yes, US is the only country that can stand up against China but if you are a true Ally of the US, How can you support him if it ended up on a shooting contest? What can you provide as an ally for a 100% support? What is your 100% support can do and will be?
I'll go back to what should be the real scenario.
PHILIPPINES itself should be the Primary Force Pushing China away and US being its support.
But on the way you think, US should be the Primary force pushing China away while Philippines is what? Taga-gatong? Funny how that works. Hmmm let me think again.
Nope that's not how it works.
I'm not even saying that you are forcing the US, which realistically you can't. But the Argument is that your way of thinking is too Selfish that you only sight your side and forget that US is not immortal nor invincible matter that will not lose anything.
For me, it is not just the Truth but the Reality.
First of all, I am going to ignore that you called my statement as "asinine", and second is that this is the last time I will be answering your rants here on my blog.
ReplyDeleteWhether the US likes it or not, they are being put on the spot because they are the only ones who can stop China. It's up to them what to do, but that is fact. No other country in the world can stop China, not Vietnam, not Japan, but the US.
As for what the US will get out of it, the Philippines is in a strategic position, if China manages to set up bases here it will enable them to control the WPS better than they would have better have hoped. Once China controls the WPS then they will be able to affect the global international trade along the area, which translates to economic perks.
Now if the US chooses to ignore that, then it is up to them. They know the consequences, the choice is theirs on what they want to do. But the bottomline is, unless the US acts, then the rest of Asia will be under China's mercy.
If Russia is the only way we can quickly start-up our submarine force, then let’s get Kilo class subs and be done with it…and along the way when PN have enough technical know-how to operate subs and hopefully the govt still have the political will and budget, then we can move up to modern AIP subs
ReplyDeletesir mukhang masmaganda pa ang Type 039 ng China sa dalawang model na ito, ang flank sonar nya is an improved variant of a french made sonar na may rang na 30kms.. mukhang tagilid tyo kung isa sa dalawang ito kukunin natin...
ReplyDeleteI agree na maganda yung Type 039A Submarine ng Tsina. Isa sa mga pinakamagaling na Conventional Submarines ang Yuan class na iyan: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-has-built-the-biggest-baddest-conventional-submarine-18629
ReplyDeleteKaso e hindi basta-basta papayagan ng US Intelligence services na maging ganun tayo ka close sa Tsina. Gagawa at gagawa ng paraan ang mga iyan at pakikilusin ng pakikilusin nila ang mga tuta nila rito sa Pilipinas.
Tingnan mo, 2016 pa sinasabi ni Duterte na mag switch na sa Tsina at sa Russiya, pero hanggang ngayon e mabagal ang mga pagkilos at pangyayari.
true, pader ang babanggain ni Duterte kasi kahit AFP eh maka US halos lahat yan.. Alam naman nating mga pinoy yan..
ReplyDeleteButi sana kung malaki ang silbi sa atin ng mga Kano e wala rin naman, especially after nilaglag tayo sa Panatag Shoal nuong 2012. Ni wala man lang Infrastructure Soft Loans kagaya ng Tsina. Anyway, tingnan na lang natin kung ano ang mangyayari.
ReplyDeleteKaya nga nandito tayo sa sitwasyon natin ngayon kasi pumalpak ang aggressive approach ni pnoy, akala nya babackupan tyo ng kano eh ayaw din pala ni Obama ng confrontation sa China kaya yun nganga... Ang akala ng ibang pinoy may beiring yung UNCLOS ruling eh sa totoo oang kapag binasa mo sya eh dinefunct lang nung ruling yung 9 dash line at hindi inaward ang wps sa kahit kaninong bansa.. kahit yung mga moderator ng dating timawa alam yan at yan ang sinasabi.. hindi lng talaga marunong umintindi ibang pinoy...
ReplyDeleteTama. At masyado nating pinagsisiksikan ang mga sarili natin sa mga Kano kahit di naman sila gaano ka committed na tulungan tayo laban sa Tsina.
ReplyDelete